Prognostication

There are a few things I've been sort of mentioning in conversation with my friends, little predictions about what I foresaw the 2012 battle coming down to. They haven't all been right, but there are some big ones, some that were scoffed at, that I think look more and more plausible as things unfold.

Right now, Herman Cain still seems to be clinging to his role as the current GOP frontrunner, even now eliciting far more excitement than his chief rival, Mitt "I'm Running For President for Gosh Sakes" Romney. But sexual harrassment claims put a politician in a tough spot, and Herman the Hammer sees all problems as nails. 


Prediction: Herman Cain resorts to boosting plausible deniability, with he and his right-wing-talk supporters (ie, Limbaugh, Hannity, etc.) vilifying his accuser. Either she'll be an economic opportunist taking advantage of a powerful man, or she'll be a tawdry slut looking for attention.

Now, let's assume the Republican electorate at some point comes to its senses and decides Herman Cain being both an unelectable idiot and a philanderer is just a little too much for them. They still hate Romney, the only plausible candidate. And these Tea Party types have shown they care more for ideology and personality than substance or logic. I don't think I've ever seen an election begging so hard for third-party candidates.

Prediction: A viable Tea Party candidate, and possibly (though likely to negligible effect on the election) a far-left challenger to Obama.

On that note - WTF, Sarah Palin? I was completely convinced she was running for office, and I'm still not entirely sure she wasn't. The bus tour, the media frenzy, and the knowledge of reality without Palin injecting herself into the news cycle, makes me wonder if she just didn't declare her candidacy. It would make sense to view her actions as the beginnings of a campaign that ran out of oxygen after both Bachmann and Perry were officially in the running.

Prediction: She's too unpredictable, too assured in her nonexistent skills, for me to even guess what she does next, but you can rest assured it will only benefit her. And you can bet she won't fade quietly from the national stage - I'm sure, at the very least, she has kingmaker ambitions.

Finally, another thing that's been on my mind: Healthcare. I predicted nigh two years ago, when my fellow Democrats were convinced the victory was total and we needed to move on, that this would remain a major issue all the way until the election, and very probably beyond. Now the Supreme Court is readying to take the case. My bet is that the law will remain largely unchanged, but either way the impending decision will probably work in President Obama's favor. If they rule against, he can use that to boost his base, framing the election, and its impact on the Judiciary and the Court, as a needed turning-point. If it's decided that the provision in in fact constitutional, then Obama has a clear and solid victory going into the election.

Prediction: Nothing will change except Obama's poll numbers, which should see a bump. Nowhere to go but up, at least, right?

It'll be fun looking back at this after the election. Unless these are all wrong, in which event I'll be rewriting this entirely and still claiming victory. Mutable media!

The Subtle Differences Between #Occupy and the Tea Party

Let's discuss the difference between Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party. This first image, for examle, indicates the general reception of the Tea Party by the powers that be, vis-à-vis their initial demonstrations:

Here we see the line-up for the official FoxNews sponsored Tea Parties.

And here's an image indicative the of the general reception of Occupy protestors:

Here we see an Iraq War veteran who's been shot in the head, reportedly with a
tear gas canister, in the streets of Oakland

The differences are subtle, I know. Maybe video might clarify. Here's a government official lashing out  and attacking the Tea Party:

Contrast that with government officials responding to OWS:

Can you see it? No? Jeez. Look -- the Occupy guys are total hippies! In the first picture, check out that stoner on the left with the giant earrings. What are those made of, tusks? Hey, jackass, go get a job! Tea Party supporters, on the other hand, are more like Glenn Beck. Family men. With jobs.

And those Oakland protesters, what dicks. They were saying some very mean-spirited things, and being quite loud about it. It looks like they may have been obstructing pedestrians, too, which is completely illegal. And rude.

There isn't any video of it (conveniently enough) yet, but the Oakland police said the protesters were throwing rocks, bottles and paint at them. It very much scuffed and otherwise defaced their body armor -- which, I might add, was paid for by taxpayers. I mean, tear gas may be too dangerous for warfare, but common decency has its limits.

Think about that the next time you see one of these "peaceful protests" in the news. Hippy.

The Grand Ol' Party (or: How Republicans Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb)

Let's flash back to 2008 for a moment. Spirits are high across the nation, and Democrats are fat with power and pride. It seems as if the excess of the Bush Administration has stirred a powerful backlash that, combined with the political and rhetorical skills of the newly-elected President, might just cause an era of Democratic control.

That, uh... that didn't seem to last long.

Just before Obama's landslide, the Republican machine went into full-on panic mode. Like a cornered animal, starving but resourceful, they lashed out full-force in a desperate bid to survive. Almost immediately, the Right-Wing Echo Chamber wrenched the debate away from silly trifles like economic recovery in a global market to important issues like the decades-long conspiracy to hide Barack Hussein Obama's international citizenship. Republican operators FreedomWorks and FoxNews seemed to spur the growth of teabaggers, the Tea Party Beta.

This proved most effective. The original mantra of the group was actually agreeable, on its face. They were tired of Democrats and Republicans and all the useless ideological quibbling. They demanded their government sober up and focus only on one thing: the economy. Jobs and revenue. Cutting waste, trimming bloated government, and - most intriguing to me - saving fights over social policy for a brighter day. This was the party that loved Ron Paul, after all, and he openly criticized government restrictions of liberty, and even the War on Drugs.

PARTY OF NOTHING

That turned out to be far from reality, but it was a potent platform. Combined with non-stop, unprecedented, vicious attacks on the President, and the (totally not racist) gutteral loathing many (in the South) seemed to have specifically for Barack Obama, 2010 saw the Democrats taking a huge political hit. The GOP as a whole had embraced the Policy of No, the art of opposition, and it had worked.

So far, the 112th Congress has passed less than 1% of the nearly 4,000 bills introduced. That's a bit misleading, perhaps, as their session is only part-way through, but the 111th passed only 3% of the bills introduced during their's. Most concerning, though, is that those numbers are owed, in part, to a surge in cloture votes. The 111th Congress used the filibuster in unprecedented numbers, and were it not for a corresponding historic rise in cloture votes, the recent inactivity would have been that much more glaring. The number of filibusters may fall in the 112th, but only because the House has greatly reduced the need for such measures by coupling opposition and inactivity with an urge to pass bills they know won't become law.

That's all political infighting and Congressional criticism. But there's a much more immediate and insidious side to these current politics, giving rise to a disturbingly interesting conspiracy theory. What if, the idea goes, the GOP has seen political oppurtunity in sabotaging not just their political opposition, but the constituency thereof? Put more bluntly: Are Republicans purposely destroying America?

This is a purely intellectual excercise. It would be wrong to assume that anyone could be craven enough, or deluded enough, to use their power in such a way. The members of Congress are in Washington to work as part of the government - you have to assume they're doing their jobs, and doing so with the best interests of our nation, this Grand Experiment of ours, in mind. Right? Right.

PLOTTING

But, what would you have to do to actually destroy America? If your aim was to tear down the framework of our nation, how would you go about it? Let's say you're a powerful politician whose sole aim is making life miserable for the people you govern, ultimately in hope they'll take their anger out on those you oppose. More specifically, the President.

It's a herculean task, really. You'd need a groundswell of popular support. You would have to somehow develop a rabid constituency, if not manufacture one altogether. No matter how corrupt your vision of government may be, it's still impossible to legislate without the power of the ballot behind you. Palpatine dissolved the Alliance to thunderous applause, I'm sure we all recall.

If you wanted to take out the President, the best way to do that -- historically -- is to make sure there's a bad economy. In our evil plot, here, there would be all sorts of other benefits to a declining economy, but the most dramatic, immediate and important would be the impact it would have on control of the White House.

Now, if we're deliberately maneuvering government to directly oppose the interests of our constituency, we need some sort of cover. Whatever we do, we have to create a general sense of panic, anger and frustration. Political crises can be manufactured, for example. Disasters of any sort would be beneficial, really, but must be accompanied with appropriate political spectacle.

Lastly, and least intuitive, it would be important to diminish the populace's opinion of Congress itself. The more they see the body as a collection of lazy, bumbling fools in a distant capitol building, the better. This is a sinister and far-reaching plot, and a perception of impotence or incompetence will only make things easier. It would be ideal if all useful government activities ceased to function. Failing total shutdown, any blows to efficacy or even efficiency would be beneficial.

THE CONSPIRACY

Let's slip off our corrupt politician hat and put on one made of aluminum. We've identified the steps one could take to sabotage a nation for sake of political expedience. Now, let's pretend the plot is real and people in the government are acting it out.

Congressional Republicans have quite a bit of support for crazy, destructive policies thanks to an outbreak of extreme conservative activists, most often calling themselves the "Tea Party." (To confuse things further, they actually belong to the Republican Party.) The movement started with a successful, screaming conservative on national television, and was supported, often even funded by major media outlets (most notably FoxNews, the most influential network on television).

As for economic sabotage, examples of GOP activity that has directly and negatively impacted the economy are many and varied, and date back to the previous Republican administration. Here's one of the theorists propagating this particular aspect of the Grand Ol' Conspiracy for HuffPo.

Then, of course, there's panic. Luckily enough for conservatives, though, we've existed in a culture of fear for about a decade. The Right has used every failed terrorist attack as a talking point, highlighting the ineffectiveness of the current administration and the agencies established to protect us from such threats. Numerous disasters have also been used to further political interest, most notable being calls to abolish FEMA.

As for evil mastermind credibility, have you seen Congresses approval ratings? They wish they had Obama's numbers! Every day another congressman does something so awful, so craven, we all shake our collective heads and swear aloud. If it was an evil plot, mission accomplished. Everyone hates Congress.

And don't even get me started on efficacy and inefficiency...

VERDICT

It's interesting to think about. And, though I hesitate to admit it, I would not be the least bit surprised if there were actually people in powerful positions who have actually see the political benefits of sabotage. When I hear talk of dramatic defecit reduction in an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression, I do wonder if the person making the argument is just oblivious to history, or economics, or if they genuinely want to see a double-dip.

But it isn't all insidious. A depressing number of people honestly believe, almost religiously, in certain ideals that are truly harmful to government and society. There's some hope; people yearn to be good, and to do good. If we just gather together, and work to share our beliefs, and the logic behind them, maybe -- just maybe -- we can talk some goddamn sense into these morons.

New Season, New Joys

I love politics. And, just like every other great American sport, there's a season when things get exciting - with politics, of course, it hovers around September through November. And goddamn is this year a good one.

Christine O'Donnell, for example. The Republican from Delaware was a surprise winner during the Republican Primary - prompting even Karl Rove to throw in the proverbial towel on the General. And, as the race has gone on, it's become disturbingly obvious O'Donnell is just what she claimed to be; average. Like most Americans, she has no idea what the hell is in that fancy "Constitution" thingy. It appears that during her week-long "graduate fellowship with the Claremont Institute in constitutional government" they didn't quite make it to the amendments. Which says, basically, that she must've skipped her first civics exam when (if?) she went to college.

The Rove prediction isn't entirely shocking - he seems skeptical of the entire Tea Party movement. The long-time beneficiary of the Republican establishment obviously has a dog in this race, but when he's got his analyst cap on, and especially when he's criticizing conservatives, there are few people who can speak with greater authority. His equating Teabaggers to members of the Civil Rights movement is retarded, at best, (Beck-esque, really,) but one should expect hyperbole from a professional spin doctor.

It's not all bad for the Tea Party - Democrat Jack Conway pulled the ultimate dirty campaign tactic (questioning his opponent's religious beliefs) in his battle against Rand Paul. Translation: Conway's desperate. And he isn't the only one - shockingly, a few Tea Party candidates seem like they're on the road to D.C. The bad news is that people would vote for unqualified candidates out of spite for established politicians. The good news, though, is that Republicans seem to be painting themselves into a corner.

During the Bush years, the Democratic Party was fractured, and the Independent party was made up of avowed liberals, progressives and even socialists. This led to easy exploitation - a house divided and all that, after all - by the right-wing, and created situations where, even in the face of majority opposition (ideologically speaking), the President went largely unchallenged on his legislative initiatives. The Tea Party, already sparring with the establishment, seems prepared to put Republicans in the same position. This isn't the Reagan Revolution, this is a dip into anarchy.

In fact, should the movement survive until 2012, it's easy to imagine a conservative third-party candidate siphoning votes away from Republicans. One can dream...

What a year to see, though, eh? It seems like both parties are taking it from all directions, with the American people seemingly, desperately, shooting themselves in the feet with every vote. God, I can't wait to see how this all works out.

(I'm hoping for Armageddon.)