Prognostication

There are a few things I've been sort of mentioning in conversation with my friends, little predictions about what I foresaw the 2012 battle coming down to. They haven't all been right, but there are some big ones, some that were scoffed at, that I think look more and more plausible as things unfold.

Right now, Herman Cain still seems to be clinging to his role as the current GOP frontrunner, even now eliciting far more excitement than his chief rival, Mitt "I'm Running For President for Gosh Sakes" Romney. But sexual harrassment claims put a politician in a tough spot, and Herman the Hammer sees all problems as nails. 


Prediction: Herman Cain resorts to boosting plausible deniability, with he and his right-wing-talk supporters (ie, Limbaugh, Hannity, etc.) vilifying his accuser. Either she'll be an economic opportunist taking advantage of a powerful man, or she'll be a tawdry slut looking for attention.

Now, let's assume the Republican electorate at some point comes to its senses and decides Herman Cain being both an unelectable idiot and a philanderer is just a little too much for them. They still hate Romney, the only plausible candidate. And these Tea Party types have shown they care more for ideology and personality than substance or logic. I don't think I've ever seen an election begging so hard for third-party candidates.

Prediction: A viable Tea Party candidate, and possibly (though likely to negligible effect on the election) a far-left challenger to Obama.

On that note - WTF, Sarah Palin? I was completely convinced she was running for office, and I'm still not entirely sure she wasn't. The bus tour, the media frenzy, and the knowledge of reality without Palin injecting herself into the news cycle, makes me wonder if she just didn't declare her candidacy. It would make sense to view her actions as the beginnings of a campaign that ran out of oxygen after both Bachmann and Perry were officially in the running.

Prediction: She's too unpredictable, too assured in her nonexistent skills, for me to even guess what she does next, but you can rest assured it will only benefit her. And you can bet she won't fade quietly from the national stage - I'm sure, at the very least, she has kingmaker ambitions.

Finally, another thing that's been on my mind: Healthcare. I predicted nigh two years ago, when my fellow Democrats were convinced the victory was total and we needed to move on, that this would remain a major issue all the way until the election, and very probably beyond. Now the Supreme Court is readying to take the case. My bet is that the law will remain largely unchanged, but either way the impending decision will probably work in President Obama's favor. If they rule against, he can use that to boost his base, framing the election, and its impact on the Judiciary and the Court, as a needed turning-point. If it's decided that the provision in in fact constitutional, then Obama has a clear and solid victory going into the election.

Prediction: Nothing will change except Obama's poll numbers, which should see a bump. Nowhere to go but up, at least, right?

It'll be fun looking back at this after the election. Unless these are all wrong, in which event I'll be rewriting this entirely and still claiming victory. Mutable media!

The Subtle Differences Between #Occupy and the Tea Party

Let's discuss the difference between Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party. This first image, for examle, indicates the general reception of the Tea Party by the powers that be, vis-à-vis their initial demonstrations:

Here we see the line-up for the official FoxNews sponsored Tea Parties.

And here's an image indicative the of the general reception of Occupy protestors:

Here we see an Iraq War veteran who's been shot in the head, reportedly with a
tear gas canister, in the streets of Oakland

The differences are subtle, I know. Maybe video might clarify. Here's a government official lashing out  and attacking the Tea Party:

Contrast that with government officials responding to OWS:

Can you see it? No? Jeez. Look -- the Occupy guys are total hippies! In the first picture, check out that stoner on the left with the giant earrings. What are those made of, tusks? Hey, jackass, go get a job! Tea Party supporters, on the other hand, are more like Glenn Beck. Family men. With jobs.

And those Oakland protesters, what dicks. They were saying some very mean-spirited things, and being quite loud about it. It looks like they may have been obstructing pedestrians, too, which is completely illegal. And rude.

There isn't any video of it (conveniently enough) yet, but the Oakland police said the protesters were throwing rocks, bottles and paint at them. It very much scuffed and otherwise defaced their body armor -- which, I might add, was paid for by taxpayers. I mean, tear gas may be too dangerous for warfare, but common decency has its limits.

Think about that the next time you see one of these "peaceful protests" in the news. Hippy.