I've Got A Raging Election

Aw man, it's official! It's happening! I'm stocking up on popcorn, signing up for newsletters, and giving my phone number to anyone with a clipboard. I'm in this thing, dude. And despite having perhaps the two most boring candidates to ever compete together as my options, I'm excited!

I'm excited entirely because of this. This is the current electoral map, as per the NY Times. It's a close race, for sure, but it gets more interesting when you start to play with the numbers. Give it a shot - look at polling in any of the swing states (Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire). Let's go ahead and give each candidate the states they're most likely to win.

BAM. Race over. And not just a win, a healthy win. Obama wins in this scenario if he cedes the South entirely (including both Carolinas and Virginia and shifting resources from Florida because fuck Florida) and fully embraces and supports Hispanic turnout. He could even lose either New Mexico or Colorado - but not both - or New Hampshire, any any other random <10 delegate state, and win.

A massive negative campaign against Romney in traditional media throughout CO and NM, positive campaign among Latino media, this is entirely possible. And this isn't even necessarily Obama's best case scenario - that one involves VA and/or TX and/or SC. Yeah, not likely, but more likely than Romney taking, say, MI or WI.

Or, let's say Romney and his SuperPACs have the West on lockdown. Let's imagine he finally formulates the magic position that flips Obama's overwhelming majority with Latinos. What could the potential map look like then?

Here, Romney wins by holding all of his lean states and taking CO, NM, NV and NH. If he loses any of the states with 10 or more delegates, he loses the election. This is pretty well best case scenario for Romney and it's still a pretty narrow win. NH is not a likely get, for example. This makes me very confident in Mr. Obama.

So, three of the most important takeaways from the lay of the land right now.

1. Latino turnout looks to me to be the most decisive factor of the race.
2. Obama has more to lose than Romney has to gain.
3. Fuck Florida.

And another interesting quirk: if Romney get's exactly 269, tying with Obama, the House decides who wins the election.

It strikes me this election will be like soccer. If you don't follow the intricacies of the game, it'll seem pretty boring. But, that's only because the action and the players are inherently uninteresting..